Macro: Current account deficit slightly above expectations; significant risks in both directions for year-end
13 May 2025
In March, current account deficit was slightly above expectations with $4.1 billion, while 12-month cumulative current account deficit remained flat at $12.6 billion.
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Macro: Monthly rise in industrial production strong but not broad-based
09 May 2025
In March, seasonally and calendar adjusted (s.a.) Industrial Production Index (IPI) increased by 3.4% mom and decreased by 2.7% yoy.
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Depreciation and administered price adjustments pushed up inflation trend
05 May 2025
Monthly inflation was realised as 3.0%, in line with our forecast and slightly below the average market expectation (≈3.2%). Thus, annual inflation decreased by 0.2 pp to 37.86%.
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Significant increase in foreign trade deficit
02 May 2025
According to the provisional data released by the Ministry of Trade, exports increased by 8.5% yoy to $20.9 billion and imports rose by 12.9% yoy to $33 billion in April.
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Manufacturing continues to weaken in the second quarter
02 May 2025
According to anecdotal information, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry Turkey Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) signaled that the slowdown in production due to domestic and external demand conditions continued for the thirteenth month.
Although the index value was unchanged from the previous month (47.3), it remained 0.6 points below the first quarter average and 2 points below the April 2024 level
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Slowdown signals intensify as second quarter begins
24 April 2025
After rising in February and March, the seasonally adjusted (s.a.) RSCI fell by 2.4 points month-on-month to 100.8, remaining below its historical average.
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CBRT raised the policy rate to 46% and provided upward flexibility until the June meeting
17 April 2025
The CBRT raised the policy rate by 350 basis points to 46%, which was set as the overnight lending rate at the interim meeting in March.
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No fiscal tightening in Q1
15 April 2025
Central government budget deficit was 261.5 billion TRY in March, slightly below the cash deficit (298.4 billion TRY).
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Higher inflation and tighter monetary stance expected
11 April 2025
In the April survey, the effects of the developments in financial markets in March and the steps taken in response to these developments were observed.
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Economic growth regained momentum in the last quarter
28 February 2025
In 2024Q4, GDP grew by 3.0% yoy, in line with our forecast and the average market expectation, and by 1.7% qoq in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms.
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Short-term inflation forecast raised; but no policy response to inflation surprise
07 February 2025
The CBRT raised its year-end inflation forecast from 21% to 24% for 2025, while keeping it at 12% for 2026 and setting it at 8% for 2027
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CBRT revised inflation forecasts upwards but will not respond to the inflationary outlook with a tighter monetary stance
08 November 2024
In the 2024-IV Inflation Report, the CBRT raised its year-end inflation forecasts for 2024, 2025 and 2026 to 44%, 21% and 12%, respectively (Chart 1).
In the previous Inflation Report, the forecasts were 38%, 14% and 9%, respectively. The uncertainty band around the inflation forecasts has been revised to 42%-46% for 2024 and 16%-26% for 2025, while it has been set at 6%-18% for 2026.
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Weaker growth in Q1 than leading indicators implied
31 May 2023
In Q1, growth was weaker than our expectations and continued to be driven by domestic demand
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Annual headline inflation increased to 83.45% yoy, with the core C hitting 68.09%
03 October 2022
CPI inflation was below the market expectations in September with 3.08% monthly increase. As a consequence, annual inflation rose from 80.21% to 83.45%, setting another yoy record in the revised series (2003=100).
The continuing upward trend in inflation was mainly driven by the contribution of housing, food, household equipment, restaurants-hotels and transportation. Core-B index also hiked by 2.74% MoM, bringing its annual rate to 74.63%, up from August’s 72.53%.
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CBRT decision: Emphasis on risks on global growth and inflation
23 June 2022
Risks on global growth and already high global inflation continue. The divergence of monetary policy steps and communications of developed countries' central banks are increasing due to their diverse economic Outlook.
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