The budget continues to improve, but geopolitical risks may worsen the outlook
16 March 2026
The central government budget recorded a surplus of TRY 24.4 billion in February, which was more favorable compared to the treasury cash balance (TRY 92.4 billion deficit).
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Geopolitical developments may push current account deficit to $60 bn
12 March 2026
The current account recorded a deficit of $6.8 billion in January, above expectations, also due to the methodological revision.
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No surprise from the CBRT; a “wait-and-see” period in monetary policy under high uncertainty
12 March 2026
The CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 37.0%, in line with expectations. Overnight lending and borrowing rates were also maintained at 40.0% and 35.5%, respectively.
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Industrial production made a weak start to the year
10 March 2026
The Industrial Production Index (IPI), seasonally and calendar adjusted (s.a.), fell sharply by 2.8% in January after the monthly increases in November and December (2.5% and 1.2%, respectively) and returned to its September 2025 level.
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Trade deficit remains high; geopolitical developments pose upside risks
03 March 2026
According to the provisional data for February released by the Ministry of Trade, the foreign trade balance recorded a deficit of $9.2 billion, increasing by $1.4 billion year-on-year.
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February inflation in line with expectations; geopolitical developments overshadow positive signals for March
03 March 2026
Consumer inflation came in at 2.96% monthly, in line with our estimate, and annual inflation increased by 0.9 percentage points to 31.5%.
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Domestic demand still strong in the last quarter
02 March 2026
GDP grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, below market expectations (3.8%) but close to our model estimate (3.5%).
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Signals for demand continue to strengthen
23 Fabruary 2026
Data for January and February indicate that demand conditions in manufacturing industry continue to improve, both driven by domestic and external demand, while production is responding more moderately to this improvement.
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Slight upward revision in forecast range, no clear signal about pausing rate cut cycle
12 February 2026
CBRT kept its interim targets, which it had committed to achieve by separating them from the inflation forecasts in the previous reporting period, unchanged at 16% and 9% for the end of 2026 and 2027, respectively and set at 8% for 2028.
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Expectations remained largely unchanged from last month
15 August 2025
The year-end exchange rate expectation rose by 0.24 TL compared to the previous survey period, reaching 44.0. Based on today's value (»40.9), an increase of approximately 7.5% in the exchange rate is expected by the end of the year.
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Demand conditions limit production, while exchange rate increases production costs
30 May 2025
The slowdown in production due to domestic and external demand conditions extended to the 14th month. The decline in May was at the highest rate since October.
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Economic growth regained momentum in the last quarter
28 February 2025
In 2024Q4, GDP grew by 3.0% yoy, in line with our forecast and the average market expectation, and by 1.7% qoq in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms.
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CBRT revised inflation forecasts upwards but will not respond to the inflationary outlook with a tighter monetary stance
08 November 2024
In the 2024-IV Inflation Report, the CBRT raised its year-end inflation forecasts for 2024, 2025 and 2026 to 44%, 21% and 12%, respectively (Chart 1).
In the previous Inflation Report, the forecasts were 38%, 14% and 9%, respectively. The uncertainty band around the inflation forecasts has been revised to 42%-46% for 2024 and 16%-26% for 2025, while it has been set at 6%-18% for 2026.
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Annual headline inflation increased to 83.45% yoy, with the core C hitting 68.09%
03 October 2022
CPI inflation was below the market expectations in September with 3.08% monthly increase. As a consequence, annual inflation rose from 80.21% to 83.45%, setting another yoy record in the revised series (2003=100).
The continuing upward trend in inflation was mainly driven by the contribution of housing, food, household equipment, restaurants-hotels and transportation. Core-B index also hiked by 2.74% MoM, bringing its annual rate to 74.63%, up from August’s 72.53%.
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CBRT decision: Emphasis on risks on global growth and inflation
23 June 2022
Risks on global growth and already high global inflation continue. The divergence of monetary policy steps and communications of developed countries' central banks are increasing due to their diverse economic Outlook.
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