Policy rate unchanged; no signal of a change in the operational framework
11 June 2026
The CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 37.0%, in line with the expectations. Overnight lending and borrowing rates were also maintained at 40.0% and 35.5%, respectively.
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The first wave of the global shock has been weathered, but stickiness persist
05 June 2026
Monthly inflation came in at 1.7%, slightly above our forecast (1.5%) and market expectations (1.6%). Thus, annual inflation increased by 0.2 percentage points to 32.6%.
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Significant improvement in external balance despite geopolitics
04 June 2026
According to the Ministry of Trade’s provisional data, in May exports decreased by 9.3% year-on-year to $22.5 billion, while imports decreased by 10.7% year-on-year to $28.1 billion.
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Growth driven by consumption and services, but weighed down by exports and industry
01 June 2026
GDP grew by 2.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, close to both the market expectation (2.7%) and our model forecast (2.3%).
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Budget performance deteriorated with a limited contribution of the sliding scale mechanism limited
15 May 2026
The central government budget balance posted a deficit of TRY338.7 billion in April, exceeding the treasury cash balance (TRY251.2 billion deficit). The primary balance gave a deficit of TRY81.1 billion.
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Upward revision in interim targets; current stance and framework likely to be maintained for a long period
14 May 2026
Referring to the extraordinary effects of geopolitical developments, the CBRT made various changes in its interim targets, inflation forecasts, and communication regarding the inflation forecasts.
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The current account deficit trend remained high in March
13 May 2026
The current account deficit (CAD) was $9.7 billion in March, in line with estimates, while the 12-month cumulative CAD rose from $35.0 billion to $39.7 billion (%GDP: ≈-2.4).
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Geopolitical developments have not yet weakened industrial production
08 May 2026
The Industrial Production Index (IPI), adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects (s.a), declined by 0.8% month-on-month in March.
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Changing external demand conditions due to geopolitical developments negatively impact the manufacturing industry
21 April 2026
The Business Tendency Survey (BTS) data for April indicates that geopolitical developments continue to negatively impact manufacturing, although when the last two months are considered together, the effects, excluding foreign market orders, have not been severe.
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