Inflation falling, underlying trend improving, yet no room for complacency
03 June 2025
Monthly inflation was 1.53%, closer to our forecast (1.8% mom; 35.8% yoy) and well below market expectations (≈2.1% mom; ≈36.2% yoy).
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Deterioration in foreign trade balance was temporary
02 June 2025
According to the provisional data released by the Ministry of Trade, exports increased by 2.7% yoy to $24.8 billion and imports rose by 2.1% yoy to $31.3 billion in May.
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Demand conditions limit production, while exchange rate increases production costs
30 May 2025
The slowdown in production due to domestic and external demand conditions extended to the 14th month. The decline in May was at the highest rate since October.
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Economic activity is set to slow down in Q2, following an increase in Q1
30 May 2025
In the first quarter of 2025, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew in line with our forecast at 2.0% y-o-y, below the average market expectation of 2.5%.
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Signals of a sector-wide slowdown are getting stronger in the second quarter
22 May 2025
In seasonally adjusted terms (s.a), following the significant decline in April, the RCI fell by 2.2 points to 98.6 in May and remained below its historical average.
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Inflation forecasts remain the same; patience and prudence are what we need
22 May 2025
The CBRT maintained its year-end inflation forecasts unchanged at 24% for 2025, 12% for 2026, and 8% for 2027
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No significant change in expectations
16 May 2025
Year-end exchange rate expectations increased slightly compared to the previous survey period. The year-end forecast increased by 0.1 TRY to 43.7.
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Macro: Current account deficit slightly above expectations; significant risks in both directions for year-end
13 May 2025
In March, current account deficit was slightly above expectations with $4.1 billion, while 12-month cumulative current account deficit remained flat at $12.6 billion.
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Macro: Monthly rise in industrial production strong but not broad-based
09 May 2025
In March, seasonally and calendar adjusted (s.a.) Industrial Production Index (IPI) increased by 3.4% mom and decreased by 2.7% yoy.
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CBRT raised the policy rate to 46% and provided upward flexibility until the June meeting
17 April 2025
The CBRT raised the policy rate by 350 basis points to 46%, which was set as the overnight lending rate at the interim meeting in March.
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No fiscal tightening in Q1
15 April 2025
Central government budget deficit was 261.5 billion TRY in March, slightly below the cash deficit (298.4 billion TRY).
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Economic growth regained momentum in the last quarter
28 February 2025
In 2024Q4, GDP grew by 3.0% yoy, in line with our forecast and the average market expectation, and by 1.7% qoq in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms.
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CBRT revised inflation forecasts upwards but will not respond to the inflationary outlook with a tighter monetary stance
08 November 2024
In the 2024-IV Inflation Report, the CBRT raised its year-end inflation forecasts for 2024, 2025 and 2026 to 44%, 21% and 12%, respectively (Chart 1).
In the previous Inflation Report, the forecasts were 38%, 14% and 9%, respectively. The uncertainty band around the inflation forecasts has been revised to 42%-46% for 2024 and 16%-26% for 2025, while it has been set at 6%-18% for 2026.
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Annual headline inflation increased to 83.45% yoy, with the core C hitting 68.09%
03 October 2022
CPI inflation was below the market expectations in September with 3.08% monthly increase. As a consequence, annual inflation rose from 80.21% to 83.45%, setting another yoy record in the revised series (2003=100).
The continuing upward trend in inflation was mainly driven by the contribution of housing, food, household equipment, restaurants-hotels and transportation. Core-B index also hiked by 2.74% MoM, bringing its annual rate to 74.63%, up from August’s 72.53%.
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CBRT decision: Emphasis on risks on global growth and inflation
23 June 2022
Risks on global growth and already high global inflation continue. The divergence of monetary policy steps and communications of developed countries' central banks are increasing due to their diverse economic Outlook.
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