Slowdown signals intensify as second quarter begins
24 April 2025
After rising in February and March, the seasonally adjusted (s.a.) RSCI fell by 2.4 points month-on-month to 100.8, remaining below its historical average.
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CBRT raised the policy rate to 46% and provided upward flexibility until the June meeting
17 April 2025
The CBRT raised the policy rate by 350 basis points to 46%, which was set as the overnight lending rate at the interim meeting in March.
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No fiscal tightening in Q1
15 April 2025
Central government budget deficit was 261.5 billion TRY in March, slightly below the cash deficit (298.4 billion TRY).
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Moderate current account deficit in Q1; downside risks for year-end increase
14 April 2025
In February, current account deficit realized as $4.4 billion, broadly in line with market expectations and our forecast, while 12-month cumulative current account deficit widened from $11.8 billion to $12.8 billion
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Higher inflation and tighter monetary stance expected
11 April 2025
In the April survey, the effects of the developments in financial markets in March and the steps taken in response to these developments were observed.
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Correction in industrial production continues
10 April 2025
As in January, the Industrial Production Index (IPI) fell on a monthly basis in February. However, we believe that this decline was again a correction to the strong increases in November and December, which were due to characteristically volatile items.
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External deficit remains flat
04 April 2025
According to the provisional data released by the Ministry of Trade, foreign trade balance recorded a deficit of $7.3 billion in March, while 12-month cumulative foreign trade deficit remained unchanged at $84.5 billion, despite the deterioration in energy balance.
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Underlying inflation decelerating, but administered price and exchange rate effects are on the way
03 April 2025
Consumer inflation came in at 2.46% mom and 38.1% yoy, below market expectations (mom ≈2.8%; yoy ≈38.6%).
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Manufacturing industry weakened in March due to demand conditions
02 April 2025
According to anecdotal information, The Istanbul Chamber of Industry's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) weakened in March due to weak demand conditions. The index decreased by 1.0 point mom to 47.3, the lowest level since October.
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Current outlook for manufacturing is weaker than 2024 year-end
03 March 2025
The Istanbul Chamber of Industry's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose slightly by 0.3 points mom to 48.3 in February.
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Economic growth regained momentum in the last quarter
28 February 2025
In 2024Q4, GDP grew by 3.0% yoy, in line with our forecast and the average market expectation, and by 1.7% qoq in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms.
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Short-term inflation forecast raised; but no policy response to inflation surprise
07 February 2025
The CBRT raised its year-end inflation forecast from 21% to 24% for 2025, while keeping it at 12% for 2026 and setting it at 8% for 2027
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CBRT revised inflation forecasts upwards but will not respond to the inflationary outlook with a tighter monetary stance
08 November 2024
In the 2024-IV Inflation Report, the CBRT raised its year-end inflation forecasts for 2024, 2025 and 2026 to 44%, 21% and 12%, respectively (Chart 1).
In the previous Inflation Report, the forecasts were 38%, 14% and 9%, respectively. The uncertainty band around the inflation forecasts has been revised to 42%-46% for 2024 and 16%-26% for 2025, while it has been set at 6%-18% for 2026.
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Weaker growth in Q1 than leading indicators implied
31 May 2023
In Q1, growth was weaker than our expectations and continued to be driven by domestic demand
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Annual headline inflation increased to 83.45% yoy, with the core C hitting 68.09%
03 October 2022
CPI inflation was below the market expectations in September with 3.08% monthly increase. As a consequence, annual inflation rose from 80.21% to 83.45%, setting another yoy record in the revised series (2003=100).
The continuing upward trend in inflation was mainly driven by the contribution of housing, food, household equipment, restaurants-hotels and transportation. Core-B index also hiked by 2.74% MoM, bringing its annual rate to 74.63%, up from August’s 72.53%.
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CBRT decision: Emphasis on risks on global growth and inflation
23 June 2022
Risks on global growth and already high global inflation continue. The divergence of monetary policy steps and communications of developed countries' central banks are increasing due to their diverse economic Outlook.
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