Improvement in foreign trade balance again
03 August 2026
According to the Ministry of Trade’s provisional data, the foreign trade deficit widened by $0.9 billion year-on-year in July, reaching $7.4 billion.
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Geopolitical tensions delay the expected improvement in the inflation trend
03 August 2026
Consumer prices increased by 1.78% month-on-month (mom) in July, coming in below our expectation (1.98%). Accordingly, annual inflation declined by 0.35 percentage points compared to June, falling to 31.75%.
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Domestic demand weakened, while external demand improved for manufacturing in July
27 July 2026
Following a two-month recovery, seasonally-adjusted (s.a.) RSCI fell by 0.8 points to 101.2 in July, dropping 2.3 points below its long-term average. A marked deterioration in investment tendency drove this monthly decline. Conversely, an increase was observed in export orders for the coming three months.
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Reescalation of geopolitical tensions limit the policy space
23 July 2026
The CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 37.0%, in line with the updated expectations following the reescalation of geopolitical tensions in recent days.
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The budget balance continued to improve in the first half of the year
16 July 2026
The central government budget recorded a surplus of TRY 114.2 billion in June, exceeding the Treasury cash balance surplus of TRY 50.8 billion, while the primary surplus reached TRY 315.8 billion.
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The current account balance continued to improve in May but will deteriorate again in June
13 July 2026
In May, the current account posted a deficit of $1.46 billion, in line with our forecast and slightly above the market forecast (-$1.0 billion).
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Sharp increase in industrial production; moderate recovery in main trend
15 June 2026
The Industrial Production Index (IPI), adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects (s.a.), increased by 3.7% mom in April, marking a strong start to the second quarter of the year.
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Significant improvement in external balance despite geopolitics
04 June 2026
According to the Ministry of Trade’s provisional data, in May exports decreased by 9.3% year-on-year to $22.5 billion, while imports decreased by 10.7% year-on-year to $28.1 billion.
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Growth driven by consumption and services, but weighed down by exports and industry
01 June 2026
GDP grew by 2.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, close to both the market expectation (2.7%) and our model forecast (2.3%).
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Upward revision in interim targets; current stance and framework likely to be maintained for a long period
14 May 2026
Referring to the extraordinary effects of geopolitical developments, the CBRT made various changes in its interim targets, inflation forecasts, and communication regarding the inflation forecasts.
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