Current account balance posted a deficit above expectations in January
12 March 2025
Current account balance recorded a higher-than-expected deficit with $3.8 billion in January, and 12-month cumulative current account deficit increased from $10 billion to $11.5 billion.
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Correction in industrial production after two months of strong increase
10 March 2025
Following the strong monthly increases in November and December (3.0% and 5.0%, respectively), seasonally and calendar adjusted (s.a.) Industrial Production Index (IPI) declined sharply by 2.3% in January
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February inflation surprise has limited impact on year-end expectation
07 March 2025
Although February inflation was 1 point lower than the expected, the year-end inflation expectation for 2025 decreased by only 0.3 points to 28.0%. The year-end inflation expectation for 2026 remained unchanged at 19.1%.
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No surprise from CBRT, rate cut continues in line with expectations
06 March 2025
The CBRT cut the policy rate from 45.0% to 42.5%, in line with the expectations.
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External balance deteriorated due to gold and energy imports
04 March 2025
According to the provisional data of the Ministry of Trade, foreign trade balance recorded a deficit of $8.2 billion in February, while 12-month cumulative foreign trade deficit increased from $83.7 billion to $84.9 billion.
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February reading would keep rate cuts at the same pace
03 March 2025
Consumer price inflation was 2.3% mom and 39.1% yoy, below expectations (3.0% mom; 40.0% yoy).
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Current outlook for manufacturing is weaker than 2024 year-end
03 March 2025
The Istanbul Chamber of Industry's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose slightly by 0.3 points mom to 48.3 in February.
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Economic growth regained momentum in the last quarter
28 February 2025
In 2024Q4, GDP grew by 3.0% yoy, in line with our forecast and the average market expectation, and by 1.7% qoq in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms.
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Manufacturing outlook maintained; limited monthly improvement
24 February 2025
The February BTS data showed that the outlook for the manufacturing sector was broadly unchanged from January, while indicators of production and demand improved slightly.
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Improvement in budget deficit insufficient to meet the MTP targets
17 February 2025
Central government budget balance recorded a deficit of 139.3 billion TRY in January, lower than the cash deficit (204.9 billion TRY). The primary balance recorded a surplus of 23.8 billion TRY.
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Short-term inflation forecast raised; but no policy response to inflation surprise
07 February 2025
The CBRT raised its year-end inflation forecast from 21% to 24% for 2025, while keeping it at 12% for 2026 and setting it at 8% for 2027
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CBRT revised inflation forecasts upwards but will not respond to the inflationary outlook with a tighter monetary stance
08 November 2024
In the 2024-IV Inflation Report, the CBRT raised its year-end inflation forecasts for 2024, 2025 and 2026 to 44%, 21% and 12%, respectively (Chart 1).
In the previous Inflation Report, the forecasts were 38%, 14% and 9%, respectively. The uncertainty band around the inflation forecasts has been revised to 42%-46% for 2024 and 16%-26% for 2025, while it has been set at 6%-18% for 2026.
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Macro: Demand conditions limited production in manufacturing industry
02 May 2024
Istanbul Chamber of Industry's Turkey Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased by 0.7 points to 49.3 in April, returning back to contraction zone after two months.
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Weaker growth in Q1 than leading indicators implied
31 May 2023
In Q1, growth was weaker than our expectations and continued to be driven by domestic demand
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Annual headline inflation increased to 83.45% yoy, with the core C hitting 68.09%
03 October 2022
CPI inflation was below the market expectations in September with 3.08% monthly increase. As a consequence, annual inflation rose from 80.21% to 83.45%, setting another yoy record in the revised series (2003=100).
The continuing upward trend in inflation was mainly driven by the contribution of housing, food, household equipment, restaurants-hotels and transportation. Core-B index also hiked by 2.74% MoM, bringing its annual rate to 74.63%, up from August’s 72.53%.
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CBRT decision: Emphasis on risks on global growth and inflation
23 June 2022
Risks on global growth and already high global inflation continue. The divergence of monetary policy steps and communications of developed countries' central banks are increasing due to their diverse economic Outlook.
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