Weakening trend in the manufacturing industry became more pronounced
25 July 2025
The Business Tendency Survey and the Capacity Utilization Rate for July point to a continued slowdown in production and demand in the manufacturing industry.
More
Contrary to expectations for a ‘hawkish cut’, the policy rate down by 300 basis points to 43.0%
24 July 2025
The CBRT cut the policy rate by 300 basis points to 43% in July. Overnight lending and borrowing rates were also reduced by the same amount, to 46.0% and 41.5% respectively, and the width of the asymmetric interest rate corridor was maintained.
More
MInterest rate cut process is expected to start this month
21 July 2025
The year-end exchange rate expectation increased by 0.15 TRY compared to the previous survey period and was realized as 43.6, close to the level in the May survey.
More
Will the improvement in the primary balance be persistent?
16 July 2025
In June, the central government budget recorded a surplus of TRY 330.2 billion, which was significantly lower than the cash deficit of TRY 455.1 billion. The primary balance deficit was TRY54.5 billion.
More
Improvement in current account balance as temporary effects disappear
11 July 2025
In May, the current account balance posted a deficit of $0.7 billion, lower than the forecasts. In seasonally adjusted (s.a.) terms, there was a significant improvement in the current account balance.
More
Strong monthly increase; weak underlying trend
10 July 2025
In May, Industrial Production Index (IPI) increased by 3.1% mom in seasonally and calendar adjusted (s.a.) terms and 1.6% yoy.
More
First signs of a break in the inflation regime
03 July 2025
Consumer inflation remained below market expectations with 1.4% mom and 35.0% yoy, while annual inflation continued to decline by 0.4 pp mom.
More
Foreign trade balance deteriorated due to geopolitical developments
02 July 2025
According to the provisional data released by the Ministry of Trade, foreign trade deficit was realized as $8.2 billion in June. Thus, foreign trade deficit, was $49.4 billion in the first half of the year, and rose to $89.2 billion in 12-month cumulative terms.
More
Demand conditions limit production, while exchange rate increases production costs
30 May 2025
The slowdown in production due to domestic and external demand conditions extended to the 14th month. The decline in May was at the highest rate since October.
More
Economic activity is set to slow down in Q2, following an increase in Q1
30 May 2025
In the first quarter of 2025, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew in line with our forecast at 2.0% y-o-y, below the average market expectation of 2.5%.
More
Inflation forecasts remain the same; patience and prudence are what we need
22 May 2025
The CBRT maintained its year-end inflation forecasts unchanged at 24% for 2025, 12% for 2026, and 8% for 2027
More
Economic growth regained momentum in the last quarter
28 February 2025
In 2024Q4, GDP grew by 3.0% yoy, in line with our forecast and the average market expectation, and by 1.7% qoq in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms.
More
CBRT revised inflation forecasts upwards but will not respond to the inflationary outlook with a tighter monetary stance
08 November 2024
In the 2024-IV Inflation Report, the CBRT raised its year-end inflation forecasts for 2024, 2025 and 2026 to 44%, 21% and 12%, respectively (Chart 1).
In the previous Inflation Report, the forecasts were 38%, 14% and 9%, respectively. The uncertainty band around the inflation forecasts has been revised to 42%-46% for 2024 and 16%-26% for 2025, while it has been set at 6%-18% for 2026.
More
Annual headline inflation increased to 83.45% yoy, with the core C hitting 68.09%
03 October 2022
CPI inflation was below the market expectations in September with 3.08% monthly increase. As a consequence, annual inflation rose from 80.21% to 83.45%, setting another yoy record in the revised series (2003=100).
The continuing upward trend in inflation was mainly driven by the contribution of housing, food, household equipment, restaurants-hotels and transportation. Core-B index also hiked by 2.74% MoM, bringing its annual rate to 74.63%, up from August’s 72.53%.
More
CBRT decision: Emphasis on risks on global growth and inflation
23 June 2022
Risks on global growth and already high global inflation continue. The divergence of monetary policy steps and communications of developed countries' central banks are increasing due to their diverse economic Outlook.
More