The Improvement in the Inflation Trend Provides Some Room for Monetary Policy Despite Cost Pressures
05 October 2026
Monthly inflation came in at 1.84%, below our forecast of 2.1%. As a result, annual inflation declined by 1.8 percentage points to 29.7%, falling below 30% for the first time since November 2021 (21.3%).
More
Despite rising energy prices, trade balance significantly improved in Q3
05 October 2026
According to the Ministry of Trade’s provisional September data, exports rose by 15.4% year-on-year (yoy) to $26.0 billion, while imports increased by 5.9% yoy to $31.2 billion.
More
The rebalancing of demand composition in the manufacturing industry continued in the third quarter
22 September 2026
According to the Business Tendency Survey (BTS), while the domestic market outlook in the manufacturing industry showed a slight recovery in September, it weakened on a quarterly basis; meanwhile, the rise in registered export orders signaled that the rebalancing trend in demand components continued into the third quarter.
More
Budget performance in line with MTP targets
15 September 2026
The central government budget recorded a surplus of TRY 12.9 billion in August, slightly below the Treasury cash balance of TRY 49.8 billion, while the primary surplus stood at TRY 209.9 billion.
More
The effects of the slowdown in economic activity are becoming apparent
11 September 2026
The current account recorded a modest surplus of $36 million in July. Consequently, the 12-month cumulative current account deficit rose from $39.0 billion to $40.7 billion (2.4% of GDP).
More
Macro: Weak start from industrial production to third quarter
11 September 2026
In July, Industrial Production Index (IPI) declined by 1.0% month-on-month in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms (s.a.) and by 0.3% year-on-year. As of July, IPI (s.a.) stood 1.9% below its second-quarter average, effectively reversing nearly all of the gains recorded throughout the second quarter.
More
Macro: A cautious stance supports credibility ‘despite signs of a slowdown in domestic demand and an improvement in inflation trend’
11 September 2026
The CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 37.0%, in line with the expectations. Overnight lending and borrowing rates were also maintained at 40.0% and 35.5%, respectively. No change was made to the statements regarding the monetary policy stance.
More
Slowdown in domestic demand, moderate growth due to net exports
31 August 2026
In the second quarter, annual growth fell short of expectations at 2.3%, while seasonally adjusted quarterly growth accelerated again to 1.1%, exceeding expectations.
More
Short-term inflation forecasts were revised upwards, while interim targets were maintained
14 August 2026
In its third inflation report of the year, the CBRT maintained its interim targets but updated year-end inflation forecast from 26% to 28%. This brings the total upward revision for the end of 2026 in the last two reports to 10 percentage points. The year-end targets for 2027 and 2028 remained unchanged at 15% and 9%, respectively.
More
Significant improvement in external balance despite geopolitics
04 June 2026
According to the Ministry of Trade’s provisional data, in May exports decreased by 9.3% year-on-year to $22.5 billion, while imports decreased by 10.7% year-on-year to $28.1 billion.
More