Upward revision in interim targets; current stance and framework likely to be maintained for a long period
14 May 2026
Referring to the extraordinary effects of geopolitical developments, the CBRT made various changes in its interim targets, inflation forecasts, and communication regarding the inflation forecasts.
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The current account deficit trend remained high in March
13 May 2026
The current account deficit (CAD) was $9.7 billion in March, in line with estimates, while the 12-month cumulative CAD rose from $35.0 billion to $39.7 billion (%GDP: ≈-2.4).
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Geopolitical developments have not yet weakened industrial production
08 May 2026
The Industrial Production Index (IPI), adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects (s.a), declined by 0.8% month-on-month in March.
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The global outlook and upward surprise erode the monetary policy buffer
04 May 2026
Consumer inflation came in at 4.18% monthly, well above our forecast (3.2%), and annual inflation rose by 1.5 percentage points to 32.4%.
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Improvement in external balance with recovery in exports
04 May 2026
According to the Ministry of Trade’s provisional data for April, the foreign trade deficit decreased by $3.6 billion year-on-year to $8.5 billion.
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Policy rate kept unchanged, prudent message against inflationary risks
22 April 2026
The CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 37.0%, in line with improving expectations following the recent decline in geopolitical tensions and the near-term reserve accumulation.
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Changing external demand conditions due to geopolitical developments negatively impact the manufacturing industry
21 April 2026
The Business Tendency Survey (BTS) data for April indicates that geopolitical developments continue to negatively impact manufacturing, although when the last two months are considered together, the effects, excluding foreign market orders, have not been severe.
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Budget improved in Q1; but trend to be disrupted by geopolitical developments
15 April 2026
The central government budget balance posted a deficit of TRY229.9 billion in March, lower than the treasury cash balance (TRY279.6 billion deficit).
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Domestic demand still strong in the last quarter
02 March 2026
GDP grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, below market expectations (3.8%) but close to our model estimate (3.5%).
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