Policy rate kept unchanged, prudent message against inflationary risks
22 April 2026
The CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 37.0%, in line with improving expectations following the recent decline in geopolitical tensions and the near-term reserve accumulation.
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Changing external demand conditions due to geopolitical developments negatively impact the manufacturing industry
21 April 2026
The Business Tendency Survey (BTS) data for April indicates that geopolitical developments continue to negatively impact manufacturing, although when the last two months are considered together, the effects, excluding foreign market orders, have not been severe.
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Budget improved in Q1; but trend to be disrupted by geopolitical developments
15 April 2026
The central government budget balance posted a deficit of TRY229.9 billion in March, lower than the treasury cash balance (TRY279.6 billion deficit).
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Already-high trend for current account deficit to worsen with the war
13 April 2026
The current account deficit exceeded expectations in February, reaching $7.5 billion, while the 12-month cumulative current account deficit (CAD) increased by $2.2 billion to $35.4 billion (%GDP: -2.2).
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Production bounced back in February; but will abate due to geopolitical developments
10 April 2026
The Industrial Production Index (IPI), adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects (s.a), increased by 2.6% mom in February, largely compensating for the 2.9% loss in January.
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March relatively moderate with a downside surprise; April expected to be more challenging
03 April 2026
Monthly inflation realized at 1.94%, lower than our estimate, and annual inflation declined by 0.67 points to 30.87%.
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Trade deficit widens with geopolitical developments
02 April 2026
According to the provisional data for March, the foreign trade deficit increased by $4.1 billion year-on-year in March, reaching $11.3 billion, the highest level since April 2025.
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Domestic demand still strong in the last quarter
02 March 2026
GDP grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, below market expectations (3.8%) but close to our model estimate (3.5%).
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Slight upward revision in forecast range, no clear signal about pausing rate cut cycle
12 February 2026
CBRT kept its interim targets, which it had committed to achieve by separating them from the inflation forecasts in the previous reporting period, unchanged at 16% and 9% for the end of 2026 and 2027, respectively and set at 8% for 2028.
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